Healthcare & Life Sciences · October 9, 2026
Four biotech deals that would make sense before 2026 is out
Big Pharma's patent cliff is getting closer, and these four biotechs have exactly what the giants are missing.
Analysis, not news. These are possible deals our editors think would make sense, based on public information. None has been announced, and most may never happen. Not investment advice.
Biotech M&A is on track for its best year since before Covid. PitchBook counted $106 billion across 201 deals by early June, and BCG says healthcare deal value has risen faster than any other sector's this year. The reason is simple: blockbusters such as Keytruda, Eliquis and Opdivo lose exclusivity before 2030, and the companies that sell them have the cash and the motive to buy their next act.
1. Merck & Co. → Revolution Medicines
Why Merck could circle back to Revolution Medicines
Merck needs new cancer revenue before Keytruda starts losing patent protection in 2028. In January, the Financial Times reported via Yahoo Finance that Merck was in talks to buy Revolution in a deal that could value it at up to $32 billion. No deal was announced, and Revolution's case has only grown stronger since then. Its RAS inhibitor daraxonrasib roughly doubled median overall survival against chemotherapy in a Phase 3 pancreatic cancer trial (13.2 vs. 6.7 months), the FDA accepted its application for review in July, and a first-line Phase 3 combination trial began treating patients this month. A RAS-targeted cancer franchise would give Merck's oncology business a second pillar alongside its immunotherapy.
What stands in the way: Revolution now has strong late-stage data and a drug filed with regulators, so it can push for a higher price than the range reported in January. It may also simply choose to launch on its own. A deal of this size would also get a close look from antitrust regulators, even with little product overlap.
Yahoo Finance ↗ · SEC EDGAR ↗ · Revolution Medicines press releases ↗
2. Eli Lilly → Abivax
Why Eli Lilly could still make a play for Abivax
Abivax, a French biotech, has become one of Europe's most talked-about takeover targets because of obefazimod, a pill for ulcerative colitis with strong Phase 3 data. In January, French outlet La Lettre reported that Lilly was ready to offer about €15 billion. Lilly said it does not comment on business development. Lilly already bought into inflammatory bowel disease with Morphic Holdings, a deal analysts at Truist pointed to as a sign that Big Pharma will pay for new ways to treat these conditions. An oral drug with late-stage data would sit naturally next to Lilly's immunology business.
What stands in the way: Abivax raised $920 million in July, which it says funds the company through 2029, and its CEO Marc de Garidel told CNBC that 'the best defense for us is actually the offense.' Any foreign buyer would also need to win over a board that is preparing to launch the drug itself, and possibly French officials too.
3. Novo Nordisk → Cytokinetics
Why Novo Nordisk could look to Cytokinetics for its heart push
Novo CEO Mike Doustdar told CNBC in September that the company wants to expand beyond diabetes and obesity into areas including cardiovascular disease, and that deals outside its core would be 'more obvious.' That came after its heart drug ziltivekimab failed a trial this summer. Cytokinetics is a ready-made cardiology business. Its heart-muscle drug Myqorzo was approved for obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in December 2025, launched in the US in January and in Germany in June. A decision on an expanded label is due on November 14, and positive results in the non-obstructive form of the disease could widen the drug's market. Cytokinetics already has regional partnerships with Bayer and Sanofi, a setup that often comes before a full buyout.
What stands in the way: Doustdar has said Novo prefers smaller bolt-on deals to large acquisitions, and Cytokinetics was worth about $11 billion in June. Novo's shareholders are already doubtful about its new strategy, so a big cardiology purchase would be a hard sell.
CNBC ↗ · SEC EDGAR ↗ · Cytokinetics: MYQORZO launches in European Union ↗
4. Pfizer → Viking Therapeutics
Why Pfizer could double down on obesity with Viking Therapeutics
Pfizer has made obesity central to its plan for getting past its patent cliff. It paid $9.8 billion upfront for Metsera after a bidding war with Novo Nordisk, plans 10 Phase 3 trials, and is aiming for a 2028 launch. CEO Albert Bourla expects the obesity market to reach $150 billion by 2030. Viking's VK2735, which targets both GLP-1 and GIP, is often described as the most advanced obesity drug not yet owned by Big Pharma, and it comes in both pill and injectable forms. That would give Pfizer more ways to compete in a market where Novo's Wegovy pill and Lilly's oral drug are already fighting for patients.
What stands in the way: Pfizer has already committed heavily to Metsera's drugs, and buying a second obesity pipeline would overlap with the first. Viking had about $603 million in cash at the end of the first quarter, which it says funds operations into 2028, so it has no pressing need to sell.